To me, the problem is compatibility. In a few years time I won't be using XP, I just downloaded LightRoom 2.7, and ARW is of this generation of software... on this generation of computer. For as long as I keep this combination, it should be fine. But the keepers are converted to full-size jpg anyway. Though, I should start keeping a separate dng store.
As for long-term storage, currently I'm using DVDs and an external 1TB hard drive. For the 'keepers', I should consider dng and use a separate 1TB hard drive, to ensure redundancy or an off-site system (like Ubuntu One and / or DropBox)... hmm... food for thought.